Paradigms and Conventions: Uncertainty, Decision Making, and by Young Back Choi

By Young Back Choi

An cutting edge method of the research of choice making lower than uncertainty

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Sample text

25 . The outcome of our actions and our views about their causes sometimes have little in common. We base our actions on paradigms we find suitable , with little guarantee that they are correct. All too often, outcomes surprise us, and, even when our expectations are realized , the cause may differ from that on which we based our action. As decision makers , we must acknowl­ edge ex post that the outcome of our actions depends on many forces beyond our awareness, much less our control . See Leontief 1 97 1 and Roll 1 978 for a discussion of the disparity that also exists between theory and practice and may be the underlying rationale for Hall 's law about the gap between acceptable and actual behavior.

Popper ( 1 979) conjectures the existence of the "World 3 " as a product of science that acts upon scientists' behavior; the practical person's analogue is culture. 38 Paradigms and Conventions constellation of paradigms , each suitable for a separate set of circumstances . Paradigm X might tell us to speak English to an American and Korean to a Korean, while Paradigm Y tells us to act one way toward our families and another toward our business associates . 45 The array of paradigms may be hierarchical , ranging from simple table manners and rules for a chess game, to maxims and beliefs , to the language games of Ludwig Wittgenstein .

32 Paradigms and Conventions individuals tend to formulate their understandings . This exploration is the "paradigmatic approach" to decision making under uncertainty. The Paradigmatic Approach As Howard Margolis has observed, "Creatures that must act in the world to survive cannot be continually open to taking a closer look at their cogni­ tions. " 1 9 To capture this sense of the urgency of action , compared to which the impulse for reflection and speculation tends to pale , the first step in our investigation into the decision-making process is to speak of "paradigms" instead of "ideas" or "understandings" to describe what we use to reflect our realities .

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